中国产业CO_2排放的因素分解:基于LMDI模型

Factors decomposition of CO_2 emission in China's industries:Based on LMDI model

将LMDI方法与投入产出结构分解技术相结合,建立了中国产业CO_2变动的结构分解模型,并通过中国1997、2002、2007年不变价投入产出表,分析了1997-2007年全周期以及1997-2002年与2002-2007年两个子阶段中国产业CO_2排放变动的主要影响因素.分析结果表明,最终需求总量变化是驱动中国产业CO_2排放增加的最主要因素,其中出口、投资要比国内最终消费的影响力更大;各产业能耗强度的下降是中国产业CO_2减排的最主要的影响因素.从产业视角看,能源工业与重制造业是中国产业CO_2排放的"大户".长期看,中国世界工厂的地位不转变,能耗继续上升与CO_2排放增加的趋势则很难改变.中短期内,适度增加进口、抑制出口,改变进出口结构,同时继续降低各产业、尤其是能源工业与重制造业的能耗强度,是抑制中国产业CO_2排放过快增长的主要途径.

By incorporating LMDI model with the input-output structural decomposition analysis, a structural decomposition model for the changes in China＇s industrial CO2 emission is constructed. Using the fixed price input-output table of ]997, 2002, and 2007, we examine the major influence factors for the change in China＇s industrial CO2 emission during the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results show that the changes in the aggregate demand contribute the most to the extra CO2 emission in industries. Among which, both exports and domestic capital formation have a larger impact than the domestic consumption. The key factor that is responsible for the reduction in the CO2 emission is the decrease in the energy consumption intensity in each industry. Among all the industries, energy industry and heavy manufacturing industry are the two main ＂producers＂ of China＇s industrial CO2 emission.