黄金价格走势与美国宏观经济周期之间的关系

The Relationship between the Gold Price and American Macro Economic Cycle

黄金作为一种兼具商品属性和货币属性的特殊商品,决定了其既具有保值功能同时又具有避险功能。通过对历年黄金价格走势与美国宏观经济周期的现状分析与统计分析,发现从长期趋势来看,黄金价格走势与美国宏观经济周期之间存在一定的负相关性。为此,通过实证分析,并建立模型,以此确定黄金价格走势与美国宏观经济周期间的具体联系。

Gold as a kind of special commodity which has both goods and monetary attributes,also has preserve function and hedge function.Through current situation analysis and statistical analysis the gold price and American macroscopical（macro） economic cycle trend over the years,It is found that in the long run,there is a certain correlation between gold price trend and American macro economy cycle.For this reason,through empirical analysis,a model is set up,in order to ensure the special contact between gold price trend and the macroscopical economic cycle trend.