我国经济增长与通货膨胀相互关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationships between Economic Growth and Inflation in China

探讨中国经济如何能实现低通货膨胀下经济平稳较快增长,显然需对经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系进行深入研究。通过分析我国1979-2010年经济增长与通货膨胀存在的各种组合关系并探究其各种影响因素,我们建立了两者关系的理论模型,在此基础上,运用联立方程广义矩估计法进行了实证分析,结果表明:通货膨胀产生的源动力是正的产出缺口而不是经济增长本身,较高通货膨胀一旦形成则很难控制且经济增速减缓,通货膨胀总体上不利于经济增长。

In order to sustain steady and strong growth for China＇s economy, research into the relationship between growth and inflation is necessary. This paper proposes a theoretical model to grasp this relationship through analyzing their mutual affects between 1979 and 2010. Based on this model we executed empirical analysis using simultaneous equations GMM method. Our results show that the driving force behind inflation is inadequate positive output rather than economic growth per se; once inflation sets in, it is difficult to place it under control and economic growth will languish; in general inflation jeopardizes economic growth.