帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段冰湖溃决危险性评估

The Hazard Assessment of Glacier-lake Outburst in Palongzangbu River from Ranwu to Peilong

西藏帕隆藏布流域内发育了我国境内最大的海洋性冰川群,冰湖星罗棋布,是遭受冰湖溃决危害的典型区域。以帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段的冰湖为研究对象,在分析其环境背景的原则上,通过遥感解译,分析研究区冰湖的分布现状;在基于指标容易获取的基础上,从冰川特征、冰湖特征和下游沟道特征3个类别选取了8个冰湖溃决危险性评估指标,并利用模糊物元可拓性理论对研究区的冰湖溃决危险性进行综合评估。通过评估,研究区130个冰湖中,高度危险的有18个,占总数的13.85%;中度危险的有36个,占总数的27.69%;低度危险的有76个,占总数的58.46%;高度危险的冰湖主要集中分布在然乌-松宗区段内。

The biggest maritime glacier area in China is developed in the Palongzangbu drainage area of Tebit. The glacier-lakes are widely distributed in the area. It is also a typical region suffered from the hazards of glacier-lake outburst. The Palongzangbu River from Ranwu to Peilong is selected as study area in this paper. Based on the in- troduction of the environment backgrounds and through remote sensing interpretation, the distribution of the glacier- lakes in the study area is analyzed firstly. Then,8 factors easy to be got are selected for assessing the glacier-lake outburst hazard from three characteristics including glacier, glacier-lake and downstream channel. At last, the fuzzy matter-element extension theory is used for comprehensively assessing the glacier-lake outburst hazard in the study area. Through the hazard assessment,18 glacier-lakes are high hazardous accounting for 13.85% of the total 130 glacier-lake ;36 glacier-lakes are medium hazardous accounting for 27.69% and 76 glacier-lakes are low hazardous accounting for 58.46%. The high hazardous glacier-lakes are mostly distributed in the section from Ranwu to Song- zong.