碳税对能源密集型产业国际竞争力影响研究

Impact of Carbon Taxes on the International Competitiveness of Energy-intensive Industries

碳税是学术界和国际组织极力推荐的一种温室气体减排措施。但征收碳税可能会对征收国的能源密集型产业国际竞争力产生负面影响,一直以来这个问题都是各国普遍担心的,也是各国能否顺利实施碳税政策的重要政治考量。文章对碳税对OECD国家能源密集型产业国际竞争力的影响进行实证研究,以借鉴OECD国家碳税政策实施经验,为中国碳税政策制定提供借鉴。文章在对基本引力模型进行改进的基础上,引入一组碳税政策变量构建了碳税对能源密集型产业国际竞争力影响的计量模型,以21个OECD国家为研究对象,对征收碳税对这些国家的能源密集型产业(选取9个产业)国际竞争力的影响进行计量分析。研究发现,碳税对能源密集型产业的国际竞争力有显著的负面影响,尤其是对区位敏感型产业国际竞争力的影响更明显。在此基础上,文章提出对我国碳税政策制订的启示:适当使用缓解和补偿措施;合理使用碳税收入;遵循循序渐进原则,逐步形成完善的碳税税制。

Carbon tax, as a GHG-emission-reducing measure, is strongly recommended by academic circles and international organizations. But many countries are concerned about the potential negative impact of a carbon tax on their international competitiveness of energy intensive industries;it is a very important political concern for a country to implement carbon tax policy. Therefore, this paper analyzes this issue empirically, and studyies the impact of carbon tax on the international competitiveness of the energy-intensive industries of OECD countries. Based on the basic gravity model, this paper has improved the model by introducing a set of carbon tax policy variables to measure the impact of carbon tax on the international competitiveness of the energy-intensive industries. 21 OECD countries and 9 sample energy-intensive industries are studied in this part. The results show that carbon tax has a statistically negative impact on the international competitiveness of energy-intensive industries. This is particularly true when the focus is on the non-resource based industries, possibly because different levels of subsidies and exemptions are granted for different industries affected by the carbon tax. Compared with resource-based industries, non-resource based industries gain more subsidies and exemptions.