领先指数:对未来经济趋势的推测

Leading Indicator:A Projection of Future Economic Trend

随着人类社会经济环境的复杂化,经济活动的广泛化以及经济依存关系的深入化,使用现有的单一经济统计指标来观测或预见实际的经济状况变得愈来愈困难。领先指数建立在对基础经济指标的合成基础上。领先指数最基本的特征在于其相对于实际经济波动的先行性,因此也往往被称为先行指数。介绍了领先指数的发生、发展,参与测算的参考指标与基础指标的选择、方法论以及指数可能存在的局限性。随着中国经济的转型,中国经济增长的波动性上升以及中国经济对于全球的影响越来越大,对于中国领先指数的研发将成为越来越重要的工作。领先指数的指示与短期预测功能将为中国的官员、学者以及研究人员更好地设计、理解和运用领先指数提供必要的知识支持。

With the complication in social and economic environment, the generalization of economic activity, and the promotion of economic relationship, it becomes very difficult to observe or measure economic situation only by single economic statistic index. Leading indicator is a composite index of fundamental economic indicators and a pioneer of the actual economic fluctuation. This paper introduces the development of leading indicator, the choice of reference index and the construction of component series, the methodology and the limitation in leading indicator. With the requirement of Chinese economic transformation, the rising volatility of Chinese economic growth, and the growing influence of China＇s economy to the world, the role of leading indicator has become more and more important. The study offers the knowledge support to Chinese official, scholar and researchers in better designing, understanding and applying.