缺资料地区河流突发性水污染多尺度风险评价

Multi-scale risk assessment of accidental water pollution events in ungauged river basins

突发性水污染事件具有随机性、瞬时性、位置不确定性的特点,在资料盲区开展风险评价是当今的一个难题,亟需开展相关研究。该文将模糊故障树模型以及综合影响指数模型共同应用于河流突发性水污染风险评价研究中,建立了由区域整体到河流单元的多尺度评价模式,并在北部湾经济区开展了应用实践。结果表明:北部湾经济区现状区域整体水污染风险较低,但主要河流部分断面水污染风险较高,造成这一现象的主要原因有:化工、造纸等高污染企业排水对水功能区形成潜在威胁;人类活动密集区对原生水环境的扰动大,水生态系统脆弱,突发水污染风险高。评价结果与实际调研得到的水污染事件概率分布基本吻合,可为北部湾风险源管理与控制提供依据。该方法对缺资料地区风险评价是可行的,为未来风险源管理及产业、应急水源地规划提供了科学参考。

Water pollution accidents are random, instantaneous and at uncertain positions. Thus, risk assessments are more difficult in these ＂ungauged regions＂, so more attention is needed. This paper describes both a fuzzy fault tree model and a comprehensive influence index model for risk assessments of sudden river water pollution events. A multi scale evaluation profile is used for global assessment of the entire river basin and sectional assessments of the main stream segments. The method was applied to the Beibu C-ulf economic zone to show that the overall risk of sudden water pollution was relatively low at present, but several sections of the main rivers had high risk levels. The dangers are due to high pollutant industries, such as the chemical or papermaking industries, which threaten the water quality and human activities that have destroyed the water eco system, which increases the risk of contamination. The assessment results are in accord with observations, which implies that this method is ef{ective for risk assessment of ungauged basins. The method can provide scientific guidance for the management of major risk sources and for planning for both industrial and emergency water resource management.