郭二庄9#煤带压开采底板突水灰色风险评价

Grey-risk estimation of water inrush from No.9 coal seam floor during mining under high pressure in Guoerzhuang mine

针对郭二庄井田下组9#煤带压开采中存在的底板突水风险影响因素的不确定性,采用灰色风险计算模型和方法,结合井田已有突水、出水点水位标高、矿井最大涌水量及单位涌水量等相关信息统计,构建灰色风险计算模型,对井田受采动影响后煤层底板发生突水风险的概率和风险性变异进行评价。计算结果表明郭二庄井田下组9#煤带压开采存在底板突水风险性大,煤层开采前应慎重作出避让和分区隔离开采、探治结合等有效的补救措施,减少突发水害事故的发生。

This paper discussed the probability and variability risk of water inrush from No. 9 coal seam floor during mining under high pressure. The grey - risk model is used to calculate and evaluate the risk base on the statistical data about water levels of existing bursting points, maximum water yield and specific capacity discharge. It is concluded that the risk is very great to mine the lower group coal seam under the high pressure in Guoerzhuang mine. The author proposes that the measures, including mining by areas and mining- detecting, should be taken in advance to reduce accident emergency.