基于灰色新息模型的南宁市梅毒发病中长期预测研究

The Medium and Long Term Forecast Research of Syphilis Incidence in Nanning Based on Grey New Information Model

目的:探讨应用灰色系统新息模型持续预测梅毒发病率的可行性。方法:应用灰色新息模型对广西南宁市2005～2009年、2005～2010年梅毒年发病率数据进行建模拟合,并进行外推预测研究。结果:建立的广西南宁市2005～2009年及2005～2010年梅毒年发病率GM(1,1)新息预测模型,拟合精度高(C≈0.3652,P=1;C≈0.2812,P=1),可用于外推预测。结论:灰色系统一阶新息GM(1,1)模型可以很好地模拟和预测梅毒发病率在时间序列上的变化趋势,将其应用于梅毒发病持续预测是可行的。

Objective：To explore the application of gray new information model in predmtmn ot sypnms incidence. Methods： Gray new information model was used to construct the model based on syphilis incidence rate of Nanning , Guangxi province from 2005 to 2009 and 2005 to 2010, and predicting the incidence of fur- ther. Results：The new information model GM（1,1） on syphilis incidence rate of Nanning Guangxi province from 2005 to 2009 and 2005 to 2010 was constructed. The model prediction is accuracy（C^0. 3652, P= 1; C ~0. 2812,P= 1）. Conclusion-The model exactly fitted and predicts the changes and trends of syphilis incidence on time series, thus, gray new information model GM（1,1） applied to predict syphilis incidence in Guangxi province is feasibility.