多层次模糊识别理论在水闸安全评估中的应用

Application of Multistage Fuzzy Diagnosis Theory in Safety Assessment for Sluice

为使水闸安全评估系统化、规范化,探求一种合理的评估技术是必要的。多层次的模糊识别理论用模糊识别模型对定量部分进行量化;之后对定性评估的结果做出定量化与规范化,提出对各影响因素在水闸定量与定性评估的结果之间的符合度的概念;考虑符合度、重要程度概念确定评估过程中各影响因素权重的模型与方法。最后将定量与定性评估结果与各影响因素权重综合考虑,得出了水闸安全评估的最终结论。该理论降低了评估过程中可能产生的误差,避免了随意性的出现。

It is necessary to explore a reasonable assessment technology to make the process of the safety assessment for a sluice more systematic and standardized.Firstly,the Multilevel Fuzzy Diagnosis Theory（MFDT） is used to quantify the parts of quantitative analysis by a fuzzy diagnosis model;then it is used to make the qualitative evaluation quantifiable and standardized.The concept of conformity degree between the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis is put forward on each affecting factors.The model which could determine the weights of each affecting factors in the assessing process is also get by considering the degree of conformity and importance.At last,the final results about the safety assessing of sluice are concluded after taking the result of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and the weights of each affecting factors into consideration.The theory would reduce the possible errors and avoid the randomness in the evaluation process.