基于云模型的非一致性年径流预测

Prediction for Non-compliance Annual Runoff Based on Cloud Model

采用云模型和非一致性水文计算法对岷江流域年径流建立预测模型,利用非一致性计算法将水文序列分成相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分,再分别对确定性成分和随机性成分进行云模型的不确定性推理,最后根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论进行数值合成,得到最终的预测值。通过与传统预测方法相比较,非一致性云预测方法有较高的预测精度和推广应用价值。

The cloud model and non-compliance hydrologic calculation method are used for building the prediction mod-el. Firstly, the non-compliance calculation method is used to divide the hydrologic sequence into the relatively consistent random elements and non-uniform certainty elements. Next, the cloud model is used for the uncertainty reasoning of the deterministic components and random elements respectively. Finally, the unmerical synthesis is made based on the de- composition of time series analysis and synthetic theory to get the final prediction value. Compared with the traditional forecasting methods, the method discussed here has the higher prediction accuracy and application value.