基于空间关联性的广深两地产业结构调整研究——珠三角经济区域背景下的考察

Research on the Spatial Association of Industrial Structure in Guangzhou and Shenzhen:A Study of the Pearl River Delta Economic Region

本文以珠三角区域九大城市的产业结构演进与关联为背景,利用空间滞后模型SLM和地理加权回归模型GWR分全域和局域对珠三角九大城市产业结构变化的空间关系进行空间计量回归,在全域回归分析的结论基础上进一步验证广深两地局域存在的产业结构调整动态的空间关联性,结果显示:从全域空间计量的参数估计和分析结论来看,变量消费、产业结构初始值、人均GDP、技术进步率和政府干预显著,其余变量则不显著;进一步的GWR局域分析表明,产业结构初始值、外商直接投资和政府干预等因素,对区域内各城市之间的产业结构调整作用均显示出异质性。基于这两方面的分析,为珠三角区域产业结构调整,尤其是中心城市产业结构调整,提出对策建议。

Based on the industrial structure and the association of the 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta region, this paper aims to reveal the spatial association of industrial structure in Guangzhou and Shenzhen by using the analysis model of SLM and GWR from both holistic and partial angles. The analysis shows that consumption, initial structure, real GDP per capita, technological progress and government intervention impose significant impacts on the industrial structure of the PRD region on a whole including 9 cities. Others factors are less significant. The GWR analysis suggests that the initial industrial structure, FDI and government intervention are heterogeneous towards the industrial restructure among these cities. Based on the analysis from the above two aspects, the author proposes recommendations for the adjustment of industrial structure, especially those in the central cities in the Pearl River Delta region.