基于马尔萨斯模型对甘肃省人口的预测

Prediction of population based on Malthusian model in Gansu province

从甘肃省的实际情况和人口增长的特点出发,建立甘肃省人口增长的数学模型,本文利用甘肃省1978-2010年的人口数量,利用马尔萨斯模型对甘肃省人口进行了预测,建立了人口预测公式。对甘肃省人口做出预测和分析,来预测甘肃省未来10年的人口数量。

This paper establishes a model of Gansu province increasing population based on the character of population increase and specific in Gansu province,in this paper using Gansu province population in year from1978 to 2010. The population of Gansu province has been predicted ueing Malthusian model, and the formula of population prediction has been obtained. The examination results indicate that this model has a better forecast effect than methods. This paper uses this model to forecast the population of Gansu province in nest ten years.