网络经济下一定优胜劣汰吗?——基于临界容量与蝴蝶效应的网络经济分析

Do the Fittest Survive in the Network Economy?——Analysis on Critical Mass and Butterfly-effect in New Product Network

本文应用面向对象的程序设计思想,在JBuider开发环境下对消费者决策的市场过程进行数值模拟,成功验证了新技术生产扩张过程中存在临界容量与蝴蝶效应,及其各种影响因素,比如消费者特征、价格、技术存量、转移成本和互联互通等。结论表明:旧技术或次优技术也可能占领市场,自由市场经济下,企业家和政府需要共同努力改善这种非效率均衡,使以新技术为代表的新产品网络加速扩张,最终实现优胜劣汰。

This paper simulates the consumer＇s decision-making process in JBuider environment based on Object Oriented Programming（ OOP）, and then proves the existence of critical mass and butterfly-effect in the process of new technology expansion and various influencing factors, such as features of consumer, prices, technology mass, transferring costs and inter- connection. The conclusion is, it＇s possible for sub-optimal technology to capture the market. Overcoming the inefficiency needs not only the efforts of entrepreneurs but also the government＇s intervention, thus the new product network represented by the new technology expands rapidly to make the fittest alive ultimately.