中国1985～2009年城乡居民收入分布的估计

The Estimation of Income Distribution in Urban and Rural China:1985～2009

本文基于函数形式灵活的最大熵分布估计了我国城乡以及我国总体居民收入分布。根据统计局公布的家庭收入调查数据的不同分组方式,分别讨论了农村和城镇居民收入分布的广义矩估计方法。本文对我国居民收入分布的估计结果表明,1985～2009年城乡及全国收入分布都呈单峰形态且分散化程度日趋提高,但其演变方式却不尽相同。分布间相近程度的统计指标表明,中国经济发展给城镇居民收入分布带来的影响要比给农村收入分布带来的影响更大。基尼系数的计算结果则表明现有文献普遍高估了中国的基尼系数。

Based on the functional flexible maximum entropy distribution, this paper estimates the rural, urban and whole income distribution in China. According to the group mode of family income survey data, we discuss the estimation methods for rural and urban income distributions respectively. The estimation results show that during 1985-2009, all the rural, urban and whole income distributions shift right persistently, and the right tail of these distributions are growing longer. The measure of closeness between distributions shows that the China＇s economic devel- opment has larger impact on the urban income distribution than that rural income distribution. The resulting Gini coefficient shows that there is an upward bias in the usual estimation of this index.