基于投入产出结构的中国经济总供给—总需求模型研究

The AS-AD Approach of China Economy Based on Input-Output Structure

鉴于一般的宏观经济预测模型中缺乏对历史数据反映供需失衡状态的分析,本文构建了一个基于投入产出(IO)分析原理的总供给—总需求(AS-AD)分析框架,以中国1987～2007年投入产出表为基础进行实证分析。结果表明:我国货币政策和财政政策对经济均衡产出水平的影响较小;减税能够改善就业和对外贸易状况,且对劳动者收入改善效果显著;劳动生产率提高是经济增长的有效途径,但需要改善就业和劳动者收入政策措施的配合。

The present macroeconomic forecasting models generally take Keynesian aggregate-demand deciding approach, which neglects to analyze the effects of historical data in reflecting the supply-demand disequilibrium states. In addition, the mainstream economics has little analysis on middle product demand because its basic theories are founded on the concept of GDP and exclude gross out- put. This paper sets up a new kind of AS-AD analysis frame based on the principles of input-output analysis, and the frame is used to investigate China＇s economy with the data of China Input-Output Tables from 1987 to 2007 and some in yearbooks. Our results show that. the effects of monetary and fiscal policies are not notable on the equilibrium output, but apparent on the improvement of employment and net export; and the abatement of taxes, though, has little effects on gross output, but improves the employment and foreign trade, at addition it increases the income of labour with a little inflation; the enhancement of labour productivity is a feasible way for economic growth, but it needs some policy cooperation to improve the employment and labour income.