全球化与中国通货膨胀动态机制模型

Globalization and Inflation Dynamics in China

本文基于全球化程度日益加深的典型事实,将全球化因素引入微观厂商定价机制,基于微观基础构建我国新的通货膨胀动态机制理论模型。文章运用相关数据对理论模型进行估计,充分考虑模型的内生性和序列相关性问题,并运用工具变量信息集投影技术解决由随机噪音信息造成的估计结果不精确问题。研究结果表明,自1995年以来,通胀预期与通胀惯性对通胀率具有同等程度的影响,而且全球化因素显著超越了国内产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响。本文研究结果为全球化背景下宏观政策的制定提供了新的经验依据与启示,同时为中国曾经历的"缩长"之谜提供了一个可能的解释。

This paper introduces globalization into firms＇ pricing mechanism and develops a new inflation dynamics model for China, based on micro foundation. In empirical analysis, we take into account endogeneity and serial correlation in the model, and use instrumental variables projection method to address the inaccuracy problem induced by an extra stochastic noise. The results show that both inflation expectations and inflation inertia drive inflation with similar magnitude. The results also find that foreign output gap outweighs domestic output gap in driving China＇ s inflation over the past decade. The article provides new evidence and implications for macro economic policies and also offers a possible explanation for the ＂high economic growth with low inflation＂ puzzle experienced in China.