中国货币政策的价格型调控条件是否成熟?——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的理论与实证分析

Has Interest Rate Procedure Become Optimal for China's Monetary Policy?——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

当前我国货币政策偏重于数量型调控模式,而非价格型调控模式。但现行调控模式的局限性已逐步显现。在已有文献的基础上,本文以动态随机一般均衡模型为框架深入分析货币当局对货币政策调控模式的最优选择问题,并考虑理性预期下货币当局对中间目标的进一步修正和优化,推导出货币政策最优调控模式选择的解析条件,证明当货币需求函数波动性超过利率调控波动性、总需求波动性和总供给波动性一定程度时,价格型调控模式将优于数量型模式。基于近十年的宏观数据,实证分析表明我国货币需求函数已随着金融创新、直接融资的发展而变得不稳定,数量型调控模式效果已难以保证,中国的货币政策过渡到价格型调控模式的条件目前已经成熟。

China＇ s monetary policy has relied more on money procedure than interest rate procedure. However, drawbacks of current money procedure have gradually shown up in recent years, casting doubts and triggering debates over its efficacy. Based on existing literature, this paper built a decislon-making model of central bank under the framework of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, taking into account rational expectation under which central bank will optimize intermediate targets according to new information. This paper proved that interest rate procedure would be preferred to money procedure, when volatility of money demand exceeds that of interest rate procedure, aggregate demand and supply by a certain degree. Using data of recent decade, empirical analysis showed that money demand in China has become so unstable that interest rate procedure has already become the optimal choice of monetary policy.