草畜平衡管理系列研究(6)——家畜数量动态变化

Animal demanding-feed availability balance control series(6)——Animal number monthly change

基于对内蒙古自治区和锡林郭勒盟过去60年的年中和年末畜牧业统计数据分析,得到了草食家畜年内数量月变化模式。按每10年一期,计算了家畜年末数量与年中数量之比值。结果显示,近期的20年内家畜年末数量与年中数量之差有所缩小。此趋势表明,近年来的畜牧业生产有冬季存栏规模相对缩减,秋季出栏率逐步提高的趋势。基于年末和年中家畜数量,使用插值法推算了家畜数量的月动态系数,并与由实际调查数据计算获得的月动态系数进行了比较。对在不同情景下草畜平衡核算时使用月动态系数的代表性和适用性进行了讨论。

Based on the animal production data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xilin Gol League in the past 60 years,patterns of monthly animal number change were simulated.Ratios of end-year animal number to mid-year animal number were calculated and compared in every 10 years intervals.The results showed that the ratio decreased obviously in the recent 20 years,indicating the change of animal production pattern with a shrunken stocking rate in winter and an increasing selling rate in the autumn.Based on the end-year and mid-year animal numbers,the pattern of animal number monthly change was deduced,and was compared with the pattern calculated from the actual observed figures.Representativeness and suitability of the monthly change pattern for animal-feed balance calculation in various situations were discussed.