中国住房保障政策实施效果评估——基于1997—2010年的数据

An Evaluation on the Effect of Chinese Policy for Protecting Housing

住房保障政策是当前中国最重要的经济和社会政策之一,但社会各界对住房保障政策实施效果缺乏统一认识,存在较大争议。本文基于1997—2010年国家宏观数据,在控制国民财富和城市化等因素的基础上,评估了住房保障政策的实施效果,重点分析了长期住房保障政策和2008年短期政府强力干预政策冲击的影响。结果发现,长期住房保障政策显著平抑了房价,但并没有抑制住房购买量,增强了民众购买价廉物美住房的可能,总体上增进了国民福利;2008年政府强力干预政策冲击与长期住房保障政策联手显著抑制了房价上涨,对住房销售量也有负向作用。在研究结论基础上,本文解释了研究结论与现实存在差异的原因,并提出了协调长短期住房保障政策、保障住房政策实施效果等建议。

Housing security policy is the most important economic and social policy,and it is necessary to make awhole evaluation of it.Based on the national data of 1997-2009,controlling some factors such as people’swealth and urbanization ratio,this paper pays attention to the effect of China’s housing security policy,especially the strong policy issued in 2008.The result shows that the housing security policy started since 1990s hasa significant negative effect on China’s housing market price,and a non-significant one on sale,so in a longperiod this policy will improve the welfare of people.Meanwhile,the strong policy issued in 2008 also has anegative effect on housing market price and sale,however,this policy of controlling the price by reducing thesale in a short term will generate some bad effect if it is carried out continuously.Some proposals are broughtforward to improve the harmonious relation between the housing security policy and the short term strong policy,and insure the housing construction policy effect pivotally.