职工基本养老保险待遇调整效应分析

Analysis on the Effect of Benefit Adjustment of Social Pension Insurance for Employees:in the Perspective of Sustainability

2005年以来,中国连续8次大幅度提高职工基本养老保险待遇,此举引起了社会和学界的关注。文章从可持续的视角,研究这样的养老金调整对基金平衡的影响,评估这项政策的效应。文章在分析养老金调整对基金影响机理的基础上,建立精算模型,并在一定的假设条件下,模拟养老金调整对职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响。经过多种方案的比较,作者认为现行的养老金标准调整带有较强的随意性,且增长过快,长此以往养老保险基金将出现严重的支付危机。据此,文章提出了职工基本养老保险待遇调整需要把握的3条原则和建立健全养老金标准调整机制的3条建议。

The benefit of social pension insurance for employees has been substantially increased for consecutive eight times since 2005,and it has aroused social concerns and academic attention.From the point of view of sustainability,this paper analyzes the impact of the benefit adjustments to the balance of the fund,and then evaluates the effect of this policy.Considering the impact mechanism,we establish an actuarial model to simulate the impact of the benefit adjustments on the ability of fund payment.Under certain assumptions,we compare several scenarios and find that with a strong arbitrary and excessive growth in the current pension benefit adjustment,in the long run,the fund will be led to a serious payment crisis.Accordingly,this paper proposes three basic principles of benefit adjustment of social pension insurance for employees and three proposals to establish a sound pension benefit adjustment mechanism.