金融经济周期模型拟合中国经济的效果检验

A Test on the Effect of Modeling China’s Economy by a Financial Business Cycle Model

金融经济周期理论是经济周期理论领域最新发展的前沿热点。本文将银行部门嵌入DSGE框架中建立金融经济周期模型，依据1992Q1～2011Q1的实际中国经济季度数据校正模型，研究模型拟合实际中国经济的效果。研究发现：（1）基本模型在较大参数范围内能够较好地模拟实际经济中主要变量的数据特征；（2）规则性政策模型和无规则政策模型都不是最接近实际经济的情形，半规则性模型预测的波动特征最接近实际经济的波动特征。

The theory of the financial business cycle is a new focus in the field of the theory of the economic cycle.In this paper,we have,by embedding the bank sector into the DSGE framework,constructed a model of the financial busi ness cycle,and,according to the corrective model of the quarterly data on the real China ’ s economy between the first quarter of 1992 and the first quarter of 2011,studied the effect of modeling China ’ s real economy.By our study,we have discovered that(1) the basic model can,in a relatively large parametric field,better simulate the data Characteristics of the main variables of the real economy;(2) neither the model of the policy of the nature of rules nor the model of the policy without the nature of rules can mostly be near the real economy,and the fluctuation char acteristics predicted by the half-rule-policy model is most near the fluctuation characteristics of the real economy.