基于引力模型的中俄双边贸易流量与潜力研究

Study on the Bilateral Trade Flow and Potentiality between China and Russia Based on Gravity Model

后金融危机时期,中俄双方政治互信升级,两国建立了更为密切、全面的战略协作伙伴关系。文章基于较长时间跨度(1989～2010年)中俄双边贸易相关数据构建贸易引力扩展模型,研究两国贸易流量的影响因素以及发展潜力问题,并提出促进双边贸易发展的政策建议:进一步深化区域合作机制,完善贸易制度安排;强调各领域的务实合作;积极构建中俄自由贸易区;加强双边经贸结构调整,培育新兴贸易形态。

Since the global financial crisis, the political mutual trust between China and Russia has been upgraded. The two countries have established a much more intimate and comprehensive strategic partnership. This paper explores the bilateral trade flow and potentiality between them by using the trade gravity model. The research result suggests that China and Russia should deepen their regional cooperation mechanism, improve their trade system arrangement and emphasize their pragmatic cooperation in all areas. Moreover, they should attempt to establish Sino-Russian Free Trade Zone and adjust bilateral trade structures.