汇率对香港与内地服务业FDI流入的影响——基于不同贸易提供方式的分析

The Impact of Exchange Rate on China's Service Inflow FDI from Hong Kong:An Analysis Based on Different Trade Methods

在人民币汇率改革和服务业国际产业转移的背景下,剖析影响服务业FDI的国际因素显得尤为必要。文章尝试建立一个适用于服务业FDI的理论分析框架,并以香港对内地服务业FDI的数据进行实证研究。结果发现,对以跨境交付为主要贸易提供方式的服务业,人民币升值会抑制FDI,升值幅度增加会加剧这种负作用;对以商业存在为主要贸易提供方式的服务业,人民币升值同样会抑制FDI活动,但对未来汇率的升值预期,可能会导致FDI活动的提前进行。最后在此基础上提出服务业吸引FDI的政策建议。

With the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the trend of international industry transfer, it is necessary to analyze the international influencing factors of services FDI. This paper establishes a theoretical framework for service FDI, and conducts an empirical research with the data of service FDI from Hong Kong to the mainland. The result shows that the appreciation of RMB tends to deter IFDI in the services with cross-border delivery as its main trade method, and the effect is the same in the services with commercial presence as its main trade method, but exchange rate appreciation expectations may prompt IFDI to take place in advance. Finally, some suggestions are put forward on the basis of analysis.