民族心理、社会现代化与俄罗斯的政治转型——兼论俄罗斯政治发展的未来方向

National mentality and social modernization vs Russian political transition——Concurrently on Russia's future orientation of political development

本文首先从俄罗斯民族心理和社会现代化入手考察了俄罗斯20世纪90年代初政治转型的基础,然后从意识形态(非)政治化入手,分析了叶利钦时期的政治生态和普京时期政治稳定化背后的原因。结论认为,俄罗斯的民族心理和社会现代化水平在实质上对俄罗斯转型以来的政治发展进行了限定;意识形态的(非)政治化政治化分别适应了转型的需要和秩序重建的需要。俄罗斯民族心理通过意识形态政治化所表达出的群体信念在很大程度上决定着俄罗斯政治发展的未来方向。

The article first investigates the basis of Russian political transition in the early 1990s from Russian national mentality and social modernization,and then analyses the political ecology in the Yeltsin period as well as the reasons behind the political stability during the Putin period from the apolitical ideological point of view.It comes to the conclusion that Russia's national mentality and social modernization levels essentially limit its political development since the transition and that apolitical ideology and politicalized ideology suits the needs of transition and the rebuilding of order.The massive conviction as expressed by Russia's national mentality via ideological politicalization dominates the future trend of its political development to a large extent.