经常项目失衡可维持性的动态关系协整研究——来自日本的经验数据

Research on Co-Integration Relationship Between Current Account Imbalance Sustainability and its Influence Factors:Evidences from Japan

通过建立回归分析模型,运用日本1982～2008年的宏观经济数据,对经常项目失衡的可维持性及其影响因素之间的长期动态关系进行协整研究发现:经常项目与政府财政收支、相对人均收入、贸易开放度和金融深化度之间存在长期、均衡的关系。削减政府预算盈余,提高人均收入水平,扩大贸易开放程度,将会削减日本经常项目巨额顺差,平衡国际收支。脉冲响应函数和方差分解显示,经常项目短期内受政府财政收支和相对人均收入的影响最大,长期则受贸易开放的影响最大。实际有效汇率的变动不会对经常项目产生显著的作用,靠货币升值不能改变经常项目状况。

This paper discusses long-term dynamic relationship between current ac- count imbalances sustainability and its influence factors, using Japanese annual data from 1982 to 2008 to establish co -integration model. The findings are shown as follows： （ 1 ） There is co-integration relationship between current account imbalance sustainability and goveMment fiscal policy, relative per capita income, openness of international trade and fi- nancial deepness. Thus increasing government budget deficits, improving income level, ex- panding openness of trade can reduce Japan＇ s excessive surpluses. （2） Using impulse re- sponse function and variance decomposition technique to find that government fiscal policy and relative per capita income influence on current account in the short-term, while open- ness of trade do in the long-term. （3）Real and effective exchange rates will not impact on current account significantly, which means the appreciation of Japanese Yen cannot change the surplus of the current account.