EARS在北京市流感大流行预警中的应用

Application of EARS in early-warning of influenza pandemic in Beijing

目的:阐明累积和法用于北京市流感暴发预警的有效性。方法:应用基于累积和算法的早期异常报告系统(early aberration reporting system,EARS)对北京市流感样病例监测数据进行预警分析,以流感病原学监测结果作为判断流感高峰来临的金标准。结果:2009年至2010年北京市共有421家医院开展了流感样病例监测,7家网络实验室开展了流感病原学监测。2009年6月至2010年4月,421家医院的平均流感样病例百分比为2.56%,共在11家医院采集流感样病例咽拭子19 262份,分离流感病毒5 045株,以新甲型H1N1流感病毒为主。使用累积和法对北京市二级以上医院流感样病例监测数据进行分析较好地预警了流感高峰的来临。结论:应用累积和法对北京市流感监测数据进行分析,可以高效准确地对流感高峰进行预警。

Objective：To illustrate the efficiency of cumulative sum （CUSUM） in pre-warning of the influenza peak in Beijing. Methods： CUSUM was used to analyze the data of influenza like illness （ ILl）, and the results of the influenza laboratory surveillance was regarded as the gold standard to judge the approaching of the influenza peak, Results ：The surveillance was launched in 421 hospitals in Beijing during the 2009 to 2010 influenza season, while the influenza laboratory surveillance was launched by 7 collaborative laboratories. From Jun. 2009 to Apr. 2010, the average ILI percentage in the 421 hospitals was 2.56%. In the study, 19 262 pharyngeal swab samples were collected from the ILl cases in 11 hos- pitals and 5 045 of them were tested positive for the influenza virus, with the novel swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus dominating. After analyzing of the ILI surveillance data with CUSUM, it was found that the ILl surveillance in Beijing could make a satisfactory early warning for the approaching of the influenza peak referring to the gold standard based on the influenza laboratory results. Conclusion： It could give the prediction and early warning for the influenza peak efficiently and precisely, by using CUSUM to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Beijing.