货币政策与地方政府债务:基于结构突变理论的检验

Monetary Policy and Local Government Debt:An Analysis Based on Unit Root Test with Sturctural Breaks

通过结构突变模型检验,发现宽松的货币政策并不是地方政府债务扩张的决定因素。在地方政府债务扩张的过程中,宽松的货币政策起到的只是推动作用。因此,要杜绝地方政府债务的盲目扩张,最根本的出路还是要进行财政分配体制、官员考核机制等长效机制的建设,从而保证国民经济的长期稳定发展。

This paper finds out the easy monetary policy isn＇t the determinant of the local government debt expansion through the test based on structural mutation model.In the course of local government debt expansion,the easy monetary policy only plays an improving role.Therefore,The fundamental method is to reconstruct financial system and evaluation mechanism in order to prevent the local government from blind expansion,and ensure the stable development of the national economy.