货币政策效力在经济周期与政策方向上的非对称性研究

The Studies of Asymmetry of China Monetary Policy Effects on Policy Direction and Economics Cycles

货币政策效力的非对称性主要包括经济周期上的非对称性和政策方向上的非对称性。在考虑了主要相关变量后,本文分别对两种非对称性进行了检验。结果表明:我国货币政策对实际产出存在经济周期上的非对称性,即经济扩张时效应要大于紧缩时期的效应;货币政策对实际产出存在政策方向上的非对称性,即紧缩性货币政策的效力要大于扩张性货币政策的效力,同时前者的持续时间更长。

The asymmetry of the effects of monetary policies mainly includes the policy direction and the business circle.After taking into account the main relevant variables,this paper respectively tested two symmetry.The first part established output gap by HP filtering function,and then analyzes the asymmetry of the monetary policy effect in different economic cycles.the second part establish a VAR model by the two-step method,and then use impulse response and variance decomposition verify the asymmetry of the monetary policy effect in policy direction.Test results showed：the effect of monetary policy possesses asymmetry in policy direction,which bigger on Periods of economic expansion？ than on Periods of economic contractive;the effect of monetary policy possesses asymmetry in economic cycles,which effect bigger on contractive monetary policy than expansionary monetary policy,and The former lasts longer