基于降水量波动性的抗旱应急预留水量确定方法

Determination method of reserved water for emergency drought fighting based on precipitation fluctuation

为了科学配置抗旱应急水量,将地区性干旱影响程度降到最低,以降水量距平百分率作为干旱判别指标,围绕如何平抑降水量的波动性,设想了两种抗旱应急预留水量确定模型:差额模型和比例模型,以化解降水量波动可能造成的水资源短缺风险。以辽宁省为例,利用国家气象信息中心提供的该省8个气象观测站近54 a(1956～2009年)的降水量数据,得出辽宁省的抗旱应急预留水量。应用结果表明,这两种模型适用于北方干旱地区抗旱应急预留水量的确定,可提高这些地区抗旱应急保障能力。

In order to allocate scientifically reserved water for emergency drought fighting drought fighting and reduce the influ- ential degree of regional drought to the lowest, by using the anomaly percentage of precipitation as the index of drought discrimi- nation, two methods arc designed to estimate the reserved water volume for drought emergency fighting, namely difference model and proportional model, so as to relieve water shortage risk induced by precipitation fluctuation. Taking Liaoning Province as an example, according to the annual precipitation data at 8 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2009 measured by the National Me- teorological Information Center, the reserved water for emergency drought fighting of the province is obtained. The results show that the two methods are suitable for determining the reserved water for emergency drought fighting in the northern drought area of China, which can improve supporting ability of drought emergency.