农业巨灾的成灾机理与金融效应分析

Agricultural Catastrophe Disaster Mechanism and Financial Effect Analysis

农业是国民经济的基础产业,也是高风险的弱质行业。近年自然灾害的频率和程度增加,农业巨灾风险与迅速增长的经济活动伴生,导致农业经济因灾损失不断加重。农业巨灾风险与一般巨灾风险不同,具有明显的伴生性、相关性和扩散性的特点。导致其发生既有自然因素,也有非自然因素。农业巨灾的金融效应具有双重性,应趋利避害,诱导其有利效应发挥作用。可通过加强农业巨灾的科学研究,提升巨灾预测与评估等科学技术,提高承灾体的风险意识,加强风险监管以降低社会的脆弱性等途径实现。

Agriculture is the basic industry of national economy, but also a high risk of young qualitative industry. In recent years, the frequency and extent of natural disasters increase, agricultural catastrophe risk and the rapid growth of the economic activity associated with agricultural economy, which leads to increasing disaster loss. Agricultural catastrophe risk and the general catastrophe risk has different characteristics, having the associated correlation and diffusion characteristics, to cause the occurrence of both natural factors and non-natural factors. The agricultural catastrophe financial effect has a dual nature, put forward draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages to induce beneficial effects play a role in the path choice.