喀斯特区水安全定量评价方法及其应用

Quantitative assessment of water safety in Karst regions:theoretical method and a case study of Guizhou province

基于"压力-状态-响应"概念模型,建立了喀斯特区水安全评价指标体系及综合评价模型,并以典型喀斯特区贵州省为例,从时间尺度上对其水安全动态变化进行了研究。结果表明:(1)1996～2010年,贵州省水安全度总体上逐年趋向增大(个别年份有所波动),由1996年的0.240 0增大到2010年的0.601 0,水安全水平在波动中趋向提高,由"不安全"逐步转为"较安全";(2)贵州省水安全状况总体不容乐观,评价期末(2010年)水安全水平仍处于"较安全"边缘,仍存在较多不安全因素,亟需在科学发展观的指导下持续减轻压力,同时持续增加响应措施,增强响应的主动性,以实现人水和谐发展。

Based on the conceptual pressure-state-response model, we established an index system of water safety assessment and a comprehensive evaluation model for Karst areas. Then we presented a case study of Guizhou province - a typical Karst region, quantitatively assessing its water safety situation from 1996 to 2010. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） The degree of water safety （ DWS ） of Guizhou, increased from 0.240 0 in 1996 to 0. 601 0 in 2010, going up as a whole while fluctuation occurred in some individual years; The class of water safety has been improved from unsafe to relatively safe level, showing the similar trends as the DWS. （2） The whole water safety of Guizhou allowed of no optimist, since it was rated as relatively safe among the 5 classes （eg. Extremely not safe, not safe, critically safe, relatively safe, and safe） in 2010 （the end of the research term）; some factors threatening water safety still existed in Guizhou, which called for further efforts to enhance the water safety.