中国省级区域碳排放效率及影响因素

Efficiency of carbon dioxide emission and influence factors for each province of China

采用IPCC2006中的计算方法对中国各省1995～2009年的碳排放进行了核算,然后依据DEA-Malmquist指数对各省的碳排放效率进行了有效级划分,并进一步研究了造成省级区域碳排放效率差异的主要影响因素,最后对各省的碳排放效率及其影响因素进行了收敛性检验。研究表明:(1)中国整体和大部分省份的碳排放效率在提高,但各省之间仍然存在一定差异;(2)在影响中国整体和省级区域碳排放效率的因素中,技术进步对提高碳排放效率的作用最为明显;(3)省际碳排放效率、技术效率和技术进步指数均呈收敛趋势,说明我国碳排放效率及其影响因素的区域差异在逐渐缩小。

In this paper, we calculated the carbon dioxide emission for 30 provinces in China with IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） 2006 method, and based on DEA -Malmquist index, analyzed the efficiency of carbon dioxide emission for China as a whole and each of the provinces, and figured out the main influence factors that caused regional difference; then conducted a convergency test on the efficiency of carbon dioxide emission and influence factors. We drew the conclusion that, the efficiencies of carbon dioxide emission for China as a whole and most of the provinces were going up, and regional difference of efficiency between provinces still existed; technical progress was the main driving force for the improvement of carbon dioxide emission efficiency; the convergency trends appearing in carbon dioxide emission efficiency, technical efficiency, and technical progress index implied that the regional difference in emission efficiency and influence factors thereof was decreasing.