CAFTA双边贸易发展前景研究——基于贸易互补和修正引力模型的分析

Research on CAFTA Bilateral Trade Potentials:An Analysis Based on Trade Complementary and Modified Gravity Model

基于中国与东盟1995年至2009年的贸易数据,从产品层面对中国与主要东盟国家的贸易互补性系数进行了测算,双方贸易互补性总体呈不断上升的趋势,具有较强的贸易潜力,自由贸易区的建立将对贸易往来起进一步推动作用。进一步修正引力模型,采用2000年至2009年的面板数据对双边贸易发展的影响因素进行了计量分析,结果显示,东盟国家经济规模和人口数量对双边贸易流量具有显著的影响,而2008年金融危机的影响不大,说明双方的贸易依赖程度已经很高。

This research conducts a calculation on trade complementary index from the product level based on trade data during 1995-2009 between China and ASEAN countries. The result shows that great potential of trade exist between China and ASEN countries with an ever growing bilateral complementary trade. In the meantime, the establishment of free trade zones will trigger further development on bilateral trade in these areas. Moreover, the research, based on the Gravity Model, makes a quantitative analysis on bilateral trade factors by using Panel data during 2000-2009, and shows that both the economic scale and population of ASEN countries have an obvious effect on bilateral trade flows. Whereas, the financial crisis of 2008 has relatively feeble effect on the bilateral trade, indicating a much closer trade dependency between beth parties.