周期性行业论析

An Analysis on Cyclical Industries

周期性行业的概念在证券投资分析中被广泛使用,当投资者对未来的宏观经济持乐观态度时,会布局周期性行业,反之则会布局非周期性行业。但目前对周期性行业的判断仅限于通过常识或简单的图形对比,还没有周期性行业和非周期行业的明确划分。本文利用计量经济学的检验方法,通过对39个工业行业的增加值数据与GDP数据的分析,给出了工业行业周期性强弱的划分。结果表明:石化、钢铁、煤炭、装备制造业、汽车工业、珠宝业等都有很强的周期性,而水的供应业、地热资源开采业的周期性很弱。与通常的判断不同的是,有色金属行业的周期性并不强,本文通过进一步的检验给出了解释。

Cyclical industry is widely applied in the stock investment. When the investors are optimistic about the future macro-economy, they will lay out the cyclical industry. Otherwise they will lay out the non-cyclical industry. At present, to decide which industry is cyclical is through the common sense or the graphic comparison, and no formal research until now. In this work, through the analyzing the 39 industries＇ VAI and GDP, we use the econometrics test method to divide the industries according with to cyclical strength. The results show that the petrochemical, iron and steel, coal, manufacturing, car, jewel industries＇ cycles are strong. On the other hand, water supply and terrestrial heat mining industries＇ cycles are weak. Different from the common sense, nonferrous metal industry＇s cycle is not strong and the explanation is given through a further test.