基于局部调整改进应计模型之计量盈余管理

On Measurement of Earnings Management: An Improved Accruals Model Based on Partial Adjustment

盈余管理计量方法是盈余管理研究的首要问题,操纵性应计估计的准确与否直接影响相关的研究结论是否可靠。针对截面琼斯模型、修正琼斯模型等存在的计量问题进行局部调整,并通过2002-2006年中国A股上市公司的数据,比较截面琼斯模型、修正琼斯模型、业绩匹配琼斯模型以及相应的局部调整模型的识别效果,发现局部调整模型能够改善原模型的识别效果:在盈余管理幅度为总资产1%水平时,Ⅱ型错误频率改善最为明显,并且随盈余管理幅度的增加,局部调整模型和原模型Ⅱ型错误率的差距逐步缩小,表明调整的模型较为显著地改善了琼斯模型对操纵性应计的识别精度,减少了识别误差。

The earnings management measurement method is the most important issue of earn- ings management studies. The accuracy of estimation on discretionary accruals directly affects the conclusions of related studies. I make a partial adjustment model, and compare the Jones model, cross section Jones model, performance matched Jones model and their corresponding partial adjust- ment models by using data of A--share listed companies from 2002 to 2006 in China. I find that partial adjustment models can improve the identification effect of original models. When the range of the total assets is 1% level, Ⅱtype error rates improvement is the most obvious, and with the increase in the magnitude of earnings management, the gap between partial adjustment model and the original models becomes gradually narrower, it shows that adjusted models obviously improve the Jones model＇s identifieation accuracy to Discretionary accruals, and reduce the identification error