劳动力流动、人口经济弹性与空间经济差异研究——我国东、中、西部动态面板数据模型的对比分析

Research on Labor Mobility,Population Economic Flexibility and Space Economic Differences——Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Panel Data Models of the Eastern,Central and Western Parts of China

利用我国31个省份1997年～2009年的人口总抚养负担系数、从业人员比重以及地区生产总值数据,构建省际面板数据模型,分析总人口中不同年龄阶段的人口对经济的影响。鉴于我国地区经济发展水平不平衡的现状,分别对东部12省、中部9省以及西部10省的人口弹性进行了研究,结果表明不同地区的人口弹性明显不同。未来一段时期,如何更好地引导劳动力流向中西部区域,是促使经济均衡增长、产业顺利转移、解决结构性失业等问题的关键所在。

This paper builds a provincial panel data model and analyzes the influence of different age population on the economy by using the burden coefficient of the total population raising, employment proportion and GDP of China＇s 31 provinces in 1997-2009. The paper also studies the population flexibility of 12 provinces in the east, 9 provinces in the central and 10 provinces in the west considering the overbalance of regional economic development in China. The results of the study show that the population flexibility in different areas is remarkably different. In the future, how to guide labor to flow to the Midwest is the key to promoting economic growth and industrial transfusion, and to solving the structural unemployment.