日本TBT对我国输日农产品的贸易效应分析

Analysis on the Trade Effect of Japanese TBT on Chinese Agricultural Export to Japan

近年来,日本技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)越来越苛刻,给我国农产品贸易造成了严重影响。对日本TBT给我国农产品出口产生的贸易效应进行了理论分析,并以中日大葱贸易为案例进行了实证分析。结果表明,日本TBT短期内会阻碍我国农产品对日出口,导致贸易条件恶化,社会福利受损;中期内会导致我国农产品对日出口竞争力下降;但长期来看,日本TBT会促进我国农产品对日出口,产生贸易促进效应。

In recent years,TBT from Japan is more and more severe,which has caused serious impact on China’s agricultural trade.The TBT’s trade effects on China’s agriculture were analyzed theoretically,and it was empirically analyzed based on onion trade of Sino-Japanese.The results showed that Japan’s TBT would prevented the agriculture export to Japan that led to the worse of the terms of trade in short-term,and caused damages to social welfare;it would made the competitiveness of agriculture export from China to Japan decrease in Mid-term,and would promoted the agriculture export to Japan,then created trade-promoting effects in long-term.