中国经济潜在增长率的变动分析——基于日韩及金砖四国等典型国家1961—2010年的经验比较

RESEARCH ON THE CHINESE POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH RATE ——Based on the Comparison of Japan,Korea,and BRIC Countries

国际金融危机背景下中国经济不平衡、不协调、不可持续的结构性矛盾日益突显,尤其是2012年中国政府更是八年来首次将国内生产总值(GDP)预期增长目标调低至8%以下,中国经济的发展轨迹及其未来发展潜力再次引发热议。要想对此做出回答有赖于对典型国家发展经验比较的基础上做出科学分析。基于此,本文以成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的典型经济体日本、韩国,以及金砖国家的巴西、印度、俄罗斯为比较研究的对象,利用HP滤波法获得的典型国家潜在增长率变动的历史轨迹,深入分析我国及上述国家在不同发展阶段上潜在经济增长率变动的总体特征,及其产业结构、要素投入结构和需求结构变动的显著特征,由此为中国经济实现快速持续健康发展和发展方式的根本性转变提供经验借鉴。

Under the background of international financial crisis, the imbalance6, uncooralnateo ana unsustainable structural contradictions of Chinese economy were becoming serious increasingly. Especially in 2012, the Chinese government set the expected GDP target below 8%, which was the lowest one in the past 8 years, and had triggered hot discussion on China＇s economic development path and the development potential in the future. The answers of these problems relied on the scientific analysis of the comparison between the typical developing countries. This paper selected the typical economic entities such as Japan, Korea, which had already passed the middle--income trap successfully and part of BRIC countries such as Brazil, India, and Russia, as the comparison objects and applied these entities＇ potential GDP historical da- ta based on the HP filter. Based on the deeply analysis of the fluctuation of potential GDP rates on differ- ent development stages and the corresponding features of the industry structures, input structures and de- mand structures, this paper provided some opinions for China＇s sustainable development and the funda- mental transformation of growth mode.