低碳转型下的技术发展路径选择——基于技术学习、不确定性与碳税的分析

The Technology Development Path Selection under Transition to A Low-carbon Economy——Based on Technological Learning,Uncertainty and Carbon tax

通过建立一个内生技术变化的优化模型,考察了在不确定的技术学习、确定性的技术学习以及不确定的碳税3种情况下,向低碳经济转型的技术发展路径选择问题。研究表明,通过选择适当的技术发展路径,可以有效减少减排成本和碳排放,实现向低碳经济转型。技术学习是产生这种最优技术发展路径的关键因素,技术学习的不确定性会扩大不同技术发展路径之间的差异,而不确定的碳税则缩小了这些技术发展路径的差异。

This article examines how the uncertain technological learning,deterministic technological learning and uncertain carbon tax affect the technology development path and carbon emissions of the transition to low-carbon economy through an endogenous technological learning optimal model.Results show that the transition to low-carbon economy can be realized by choosing appropriate technology development path to decrease the costs and emissions.Technological learning is a key factor to generate such optimal path and the uncertainty in technological learning can expand the divergence between the technology development path.However,the uncertain carbon narrows the divergence.