百色市右江灌区洪涝灾害趋势的灰色灾变预测

Trend analysis of flood disaster based on gray catastrophe theory in Youjiang irrigation district of Baise

根据百色市右江灌区1961—2010年降水量统计数据,分析该地区洪涝灾害发生时间的分布特征,建立灰色灾变预测模型,利用残差检验对模型进行了精度检验,并对该灌区未来2次洪灾年份进行预测。结果表明,预测模型避免了人为主观原因造成的误差,精度较高,方法简单,为制定防洪减灾决策提供科学依据。

Based on the precipitation statistical dates from 1961 to 2010 in Youjiang irrigation district of Baise, the time distribution of flood disaster in the region to be analyzed. The gray catastrophe prediction model GM （ 1, 1） is established using gray system theory, the accuracy of the model using residual test, and the model is applied to predicted 2 dry years this irrigation district. The results show that this method can to avoid the errors due to subiective causes, evaluating the results ~f objective and accurate method is simple; Provide the scientific basis for the development of flood disaster mitigation decisions.