河北省日光温室种植面积和灌溉需水量的分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of solar greenhouse cropping area and duty of water in Hebei province

针对河北省水资源日益紧缺、设施面积逐步扩大及其灌溉用水量增加等问题,本研究以河北省7个分区的设施农业典型种植模式为主要研究对象,对其灌水技术、灌水量及水分生产率进行分析计算,通过建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测2020年河北省日光温室发展面积为19.5万hm2,2030年为21.9万hm2。日光温室2020年灌溉需水量范围为62 006.3～68 694.7万m3,2030年为70 753.7～78 562.1万m3。

To solve the problems of of water resource shortage , fast area-expanding in facility agriculture and the increasing of irrigation water in Hebei province, irrigation techniques, duty of water, and crop-water productivity were analyzed and calculated , taking the typical cropping patterns of facility agriculture in seven sub-areas with various cropping patterns in Hebei province as the research objects . Based on gray GM（1,1） prediction model , it predicated that solar greenhouse cropping area could be 19.5 × 10^4 hm^2 in 2020 and 2.19 X 10s hm2 in 2030, and the duty of water could be 6.20 063× 10^4~6.86 947×104 m^3 in 2020 and 7.07 537×10^4~7.85 621 × 10^4 m^3 in 2030.