非正规金融与正规金融:互补还是替代?——基于DSGE模型的相互作用机制研究

Symbiosis vs.Crowding-out: the Interaction of Informal and Formal Finance Based on DSGE Model

文章通过建立四部门动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了二元金融体系下正规金融与非正规金融部门之间的作用机制,并对模型进行数值模拟。研究发现,在居民消费偏好冲击和技术冲击两种情况下,正规金融与非正规金融部门之间主要是互补关系,表现为两部门贷款利率和贷款规模的同向变动;而在货币政策冲击下,两部门短期内呈现相互替代的关系。

Through the establishment of a 4sector dynamic stochastic gener al equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the interaction of formal and informal fi nancial sectors under a dualistic financial system and makes a numerical simulation of the model. It shows that there is chiefly a complementary relationship between formal and informal financial sectors under consumer preference shock and tech nology shock, which is manifested as the changes in credit rates and credit sizes of formal and informal financial sectors in the same direction. But under monetary policy shock, there is a substitution relationship between formal and informal fi nancial sectors in the short term.