经济增长、产业结构对碳排放的影响分析——基于中国的省际面板数据

The Influence of Economic Development and Industrial Structure to Carbon Emission Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线的基础上,加入结构调整因素,并基于中国30个省市区2000年到2009年的面板数据,建立个体固定效应模型,以研究中国经济增长、产业结构对碳排放的影响。结果表明:碳排放量和经济增长、产业结构分别存在长期均衡的协整关系;碳排放量和经济增长间呈现倒U型特征,当人均GDP为64585元时,曲线达到拐点;第二产业比重和碳排放量成正比关系,在人均GDP保持不变时,第二产业比重每下降1%,可使得人均碳排放量下降0.3217%,这表明,产业结构调整是影响低碳经济发展的重要因素。本文认为,发展低碳经济必须从高碳产业入手,通过技术攻关实现高碳产业"低碳化",大力发展清洁能源;另外,要大力发展第三产业,即资源节约型、环境友好型产业,加快新兴低碳产业的发展,逐步减少国民经济对第二产业的过分依赖。

Based on environmental Kuznets curve,the structual adjustment factor is added to study the effects of Chinese economic development and industrial sructure to carbon emission.Panel data of China＇s 30 provinces between 2000 to 2009 is used and the entity fixed effects model is established.The main findings are as follows： there is a long equilibrium cointegration relationship between carbon emission,economic development and industrial structure respectively.An inverted U curve is presented between carbon emission and economic development,if per capita GDP is 64585 yuan,the curve will meet its knee point.A direct ratio exists in carbon emission by the secondary sector,when it decreases by 1%,the per carpita carbon emission decreases by 0.3217% on the condition of per capita GDP unchanged,which means that industrial structure adjustment is an important factor affecting the low carbon economy development.In order to develop low carbon economy,it is good to start from the high carbon industry and use technology to change it into the low carbon industry.In addition,to develop the third industry is a good way to decrease the dependence on the second industry gradually.