房价、通货膨胀与货币政策--基于中国数据的研究

Housing Price,Inflation and Monetary Policy;an Empirical Study Based on Chinese Data

我国处于经济转型时期,房价、通胀和货币政策都具有不同于其他国家的特点。我国的房价除了取决于供求的力量之外,还受人口结构、财税制度和土地供应制度等因素影响。本文利用我国2005～2011年的数据,通过实证分析发现:(1)我国的流动性对房价和通胀影响显著;(2)我国负利率推升了房价的上涨;(3)货币政策的价格型工具对抑制房价有作用,而且加息对房价的抑制作用超过控制货币供应。

China is in a period of transition, during which the real estate price, inflation and monetary policy all carry different features from other countries. Specifically, the real estate prices are determined by not only the demand and supply, but also factors including population structure, fiscal and taxation policy and land supply rules. Data from 2005 to 2011 showed that： （i） liquidity has notable impacts on real estate price and inflation; （ii） negative real interest rate has pushed up real estate price; and （iii） the pricing tools of monetary policy can contain real estate price, and most importantly, the impacts of interest rate increase on real estate price ex- ceeded the impacts of money supply increase.