住宅市场风险、信贷约束与住宅消费选择——一个理论与经验分析

Housing Market Risk,Credit Constrain and Housing Consumption Choice:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

本文基于一个包含住宅市场风险和信贷约束的住房消费选择模型,利用CHNS数据,检验了住宅市场风险和信贷约束对住宅需求倾向的影响。本文的主要发现是,信贷约束对住宅消费选择的影响要比市场风险的影响效应更显著;在住宅权属选择方面,信贷约束呈现负向影响,而且高信贷约束的负向影响更显著;信贷约束对住宅权属选择的影响效应还存在家庭类型差异;在住宅特征需求方面,信贷约束的正向影响效应表明,与住房支付能力相关的非信贷约束是影响其需求规模的重要因素。本文的政策含义是,为抑制过度住宅需求,未来仍需采取适度的信贷约束政策。

Based on a housing demand model containing housing market risk and credit constrain, this paper empirically analyzes the effects of house market risk and credit constrain on housing demand using CHNS data. The results show that credit constrain has a more evident effect on housing demand relative to housing market risk ; credit constrain negatively affects the housing tenure choice, and the effect becomes stronger with increas- ing of credit constrain; there are different impacts of credit constrain by household types ; in the field of housing characteristics demand, the positive effect of credit constrain shows that the non-credit constrains that are rela- tive to housing payment ability are the important factors in decreasing housing demand quantity. These results suggest that the moderate credit constrain policy can be used to control the excessive housing demand.