基于货币本位制度变迁的物价利率关系实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Price-Interest Rate Relations in View of Monetary Standard Institution Change

本文对中国近现代不同货币本位制度下的物价利率关系进行了实证研究,结论支持弗里德曼等的观点,即费雪效应取代吉布森悖论是由于货币本位制度从商品本位到法定本位的变迁,商品本位货币购买力短期变动大而长期平稳,法定本位货币短期购买力变异小而长期非平稳,根源是法定货币缺乏有效的稳定锚。长期通胀预期助长了人性不奈和行为短期化倾向,因此,应基于法定本位制度给货币加上可信赖的稳定锚,以适应经济可持续发展与人民币国际化的要求。

This empirical study is conducted on the price-interest relations under China＇s different monetary standards. The result supports Friedman＇s assertion that the break from Gibson paradox to Fisher effect is due to the change of monetary standard. Under commodity standard, the variability of purchasing power of money is high in short term but stationary in long term, while under fiduciary standard it is low in short run but non-sta- tionary in long run. The root is the fiat money has no effective anchor. It attributes to growing human impatience and short-term biased behavior. Sustainable economic development and internationalization of RMB require credibly anchoring fiat money.