基于干旱指数法的星星哨灌区旱涝状况研究

Study on Drought and Flood Condition of Xingxingshao Irrigation District Base on Drought Index Method

利用星星哨灌区1954-2009年的降水资料,计算降水距平百分率指标(Pa指数)和标准化降水指标(SPI),划分出灌区历年的干旱等级,研究了灌区各干旱等级的变化情况及发展趋势,并运用权马尔可夫链模型预测了灌区未来6年的降水量。研究结果表明:在星星哨灌区56年间,降水量有明显减少趋势,重旱重涝灾害增多,其中:夏季降水量略呈下降趋势,干旱等级略有上升,且旱涝灾害程度加重;秋季降水量减少明显,干旱等级明显上升,旱灾发生次数增加。预测结果表明:在2010-2015年间,灌区降水量总体呈下降趋势,将对灌区农业生产带来较大影响。

Using rainfall data of Xingxingshao irrigation district from 1954 to 2009 years, the surface precipitation percentage index （Pa index） and standardized rainfall index （SPI） were calculated, the annual drought level of the irrigation district were divided, the changes and development tendency of the drought level were studied, and the future rainfall of rain period in the irrigation area in six years were predicted by using weighted Markov chain models. The study results showed that in the 56 years of Xingxingshao irriga- tion district, the rainfall had obvious decreasing tendency, while the heavy drought and waterlogging disasters increased. In summer, the rainfall had slightly decreasing tendency, the drought level slightly enhanced, and the drought and flood disaster increased. In autumn, the rainfall significantly reduced the drought level and occurring times significantly increased. The result indicated that in 2010 to 2015, the total rainfall of irrigation district declined, which would bring great influence on irrigation agriculture production.