商业银行税务风险评估的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Tax Risk Assessment of Commercial Banks

随着我国金融行业的飞速发展,商业银行所面临的税收压力越来越大,商业银行的管理层开始日益关注税务风险。税务风险有2种表现形式,即税负过重和税收处罚。根据15家上市商业银行2008～2010年的财务数据,构建了税负预警模型;采用税负对比法,对商业银行的税务风险进行了评估。分析结果表明,商业银行的营业税税务风险变化不大,但是企业所得税税负过重的商业银行有增多趋势。同时通过回归分析得出:营业收入、营业支出、营业税及附加、企业所得税对盈利综合税负有不同程度的影响。

With the rapid development of China＇s financial industry, commercial banks are facing increasing tax pressure; the managers of commercial banks are paying more and more attention to the tax risk. Enterprise tax risk has two forms, which are tax penalties and the overloaded tax burden. According to the risk assessment indicators of major commercial banks taxes, 15 listed commercial banks were taken as the empirical analysis sample, and their annual financial statements of the years from 2008 to 2010 were also collected as the data source. The tax risk assessment result shows that little has changed in their sales tax risk, but they are faced with increasing proportionate of heavy business income tax burden; Meanwhile, the operating income, operating cost, sales tax and business income tax have different impact on the profit comprehensive tax burden.