北京日光温室风灾风险分析及区划

Risk analysis and regionalization of wind hazard to sunlight greenhouse in Beijing

利用北京市1981-2010年30 a的气象观测资料,结合温室灾情数据资料,计算了不同风力对北京温室可造成的灾害的概率,确定了日光温室风灾等级划分的量化标准,并对日光温室风灾风险的时空变化进行了评估。结果表明,当风力达3级(3.4 m·s-1)以上时,即有可能对温室大棚造成灾害。风速越大,成灾概率越大。小波分析表明,北京日光温室致灾风力的发生日数存在14～16 a的周期,春季温室致灾风多发。北京温室风灾风险总体上呈现自南向北增大的趋势。延庆佛爷顶周围一带风灾风险最大,北部山区次之;平原地区风灾风险较轻,且日光温室分布较多,该区域采取及时有效的风灾预防措施,有利于日光温室产业的发展。

According to the meteorological data of Beijing Municipality from 1981 to 2010 sunlight greenhouse, the probabilities of different grades of wind hazard were calculated, and its disaster records of quantification standard of sunlight greenhouse disaster winds grades was defined, and the spatiotemporal change of sunlight greenhouse disas- ter winds risk was assessed. Results show that, when wind be caused to greenhouses. The greater the wind speed, the speed reaches 3.4 m/s or above, disaster was likely to larger the disaster probability. Wavelet analysis shows that the days of disaster-causing wind to sunlight greenhouses in Beijing have a 14 to 16 year period, and disaster- causing wind is frequent in spring in Beijing. In general, the risk of wind hazard to sunlight greenhouse in Beijing presents an increase tendency from south to north. The area with biggest risk is around foyeding, and north moun- tain area follows. Plain area is the least wind-risky area. So plain areas in Beijing are suitable for the development of sunlight greenhouse industry if preventive measures are taken timely.